Clicks, die lohnen
Kam Chan, Terry Marsh: The asset markets and the coronavirus pandemic
The lockdowns in place around the world will result in substantial economic collateral damage. This column looks at stock market reactions prior to and after six prominent historical crises. Equity market prices like the Dow Index are negatively impacted by increases in uncertainty. The business ramifications of regulatory policies, subsidies and so on put in place to contain the spread of COVID-19 posing the greatest uncertainty in the current crisis.
David Wallace-Wells: Why Was It So Hard to Raise the Alarm on the Coronavirus?
Mit HOLY MOTHER OF GOD eröffnete am 20. Januar 2020 Eric Feigl-Ding, Epidemiologe und Gesundheitsökonom an der Harvard Chan School of Public Health einen Thread, the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad – never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating…
Paul Romer: Simulating Covid-19
To understand the effects that more testing could have on the course of the pandemic, I constructed a simple model that I could use to simulate and visualize the effects of different policies.
Der Nobelpreisträger beantwortet in einem dreiteiligen Aufsatz zwei Fragen:
1. How much difference does it make to the outcome if the test used to decide who gets isolated has a higher false negative rate. Answer? Very little.
2. If we contrast a nonspecific policy of social distance with a targeted policy guided by frequent testing that is equally effective at containing the virus, how much more disruptive is the nonspecific policy? Answer? Way more disruptive.